Method application to predict future failure frequencies - Executive Summary - Comsima can, with good quality input data, effectively predict the failure behaviour of asbestos cement mains

For their tactical and strategic decisions concerning the renewal of drinking water distribution networks, drinking water utilities can use pipe condition predictions based on historical failure data, by choosing a suitable model for the description and possible extrapolation of the historical data. The choice of this model is supported with the pipe-condition model Comsima, and is therefore based on knowledge about the physical processes behind pipe degradation. This is a promising approach, but it makes great demands on the drinking water utilities with regard to the collection of operational data.

Interest: informed failure predictions for tactical and strategic decisions. For short-term tactical decisions – for example, about
pipe replacement prioritisation – drinking water utilities can be guided by predictions based on historical failure data. But this requires that a suitable model be chosen to access the historical data. Moreover, long-term predictions are also needed to support more strategic decisions. This calls for an informed method with which to project the historical data into the future, for which no data are yet available. The use of Comsima to translate pipe information into failure behaviour is one means of choosing a curve and supporting its extrapolation.

Report – This research is described in the report Toepassing methodiek voorspellen toekomstige storingsfrequenties: resultaten van een pilot met AC (BTO 2019.050).