A Dynamic Scenario Approach to Tackling Uncertainty in Water Distribution Systems

“Anticipating future events is an important asset for managing and designing Water Distribution Systems (WDS). Systematic exploration of alternative futures improves long-term strategic planning and helps organizations build resilience and reduce risks. While these alternative futures are very important, experts and designers struggle to understand key variables affecting the integrity of water systems. Traditional models, including both deterministic and various stochastic approaches, often encounter difficulties when dealing with the profound uncertainties present in these variables. Literature classify this type of uncertainty as “deep”. Its complexity stems from complex interconnected forces or drivers. In this paper, we present a transparent methodology that integrates both regular and deep uncertainties. Using a system dynamics model, we also carefully consider the impact phase of every scenario. This comprehensive approach allows us to effectively showcase the critical importance of the impact phase in scenario analysis, illustrating how it can directly influence a system’s integrity.”

(Citation: Michalopoulos, C., Savic, D.A., Makropoulos, C. – A Dynamic Scenario Approach to Tackling Uncertainty in Water Distribution Systems – https://orda.shef.ac.uk/articles/conference_contribution/A_Dynamic_Scenario_Approach_to_Tackling_Uncertainty_in_Water_Distribution_Systems/29921039?file=57215687 – This paper was presented at the 21st Computing and Control in the Water Industry Conference (CCWI 2025) at the University of Sheffield (1st – 3rd September 2025))