On the impact of operational uncertainties on water distribution system design

“The long-term design of Water Distribution Systems is a difficult task, with complex non-linear relationships, multiple objectives, and a decision space constrained by a discrete set of feasible actions. Numerous and heterogeneous sources of uncertainty also influence the complex landscape of solutions the decision-makers must explore. In response to this complexity, much of the current research is devoted to developing innovative methodologies to design systems that cope with these uncertainties, aiming at robust or flexible solutions.
In this study, we investigate a source of uncertainty whose role in the long-term design and planning of the infrastructure is often overlooked: operational uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty stemming from the missing knowledge on the future values of the operational variables (e.g., pumping speeds and valve positions). From the design perspective, this represents an additional source of uncertainty for two reasons: first, the implemented control strategy is unknown (e.g., pump scheduling vs Model Predictive Control), and finally, in the case of any feedback control strategy, the optimal control actions depend on the uncertainties’ realisation, unknown during the design phase. Unlike other types of uncertainty, which stem from external factors beyond our control, operational uncertainty comes from the control decision variables, which can be subjected to cost-effective adjustments in the future.”

(Citation: Zanutto, D., Castelletti, A., and Savic, D.- On the impact of operational uncertainties on water distribution system design, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024 – EGU24-5953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5953, 2024 – (Open Access))

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.