Towards Innovative Solutions through Integrative Futures Analysis - Preliminary qualitative scenarios

“This report presents preliminary results of developing qualitative global water scenarios. The water scenarios are developed to be consistent with the underlying Shared Socio- Economic Pathways (SSPs). In this way different stakeholders in different contexts (climate, water) can be presented with consistent set of scenarios avoiding confusion and increasing policy impact. Water scenarios are based on the conceptual framework that has been developd specifically for this effort. The framework provides clear representation of important dimensions in the areas of Nature, Economy and Society and Water dimensions that are embedded in them. These critical dimensions are used to describe future changes in a consistent way for all scenarios. Three scenarios are presented based on SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 respectively. Hydro-economic classes are introduced to further differentiate within scenarios based on economic and water conditions for specific regions and/or countries. In the process of building these preliminary water scenarios assumptions that are presented in this report, the number of challenges have been met. In the conclusions section these challenges are summarized and possible ways of tackling them are described.”

(Citaat: Cosgrove, W., Fischer, G., Floerke, M., Hizsnyik, E., Magnuszewski, P., Pahl-Wostl, C., Scherzer, A., Segrave, A.J., et al. – Towards Innovative Solutions through Integrative Futures Analysis – Preliminary qualitative scenarios – IIASA Interim Report, IR-15-012, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (2015))